1.2m people in England and Wales predicted to have dementia by 2040
The research, published in The British Medical Journal (BMJ), shows that, although the incidence (number of newly diagnosed cases) of dementia is falling, the overall prevalence (number of people living with the condition) is set to increase substantially as people live longer and deaths from other causes, such as heart disease, continue to decline. With current costs of dementia to the UK economy estimated at £23 billion a year, accurate projections are vital in defining future needs. But existing forecasts may not be precise as they assume that rates of dementia will remain constant. Future burden An international team of researchers set out to predict the future burden of dementia with more certainty by developing a mathematical model (IMPACT -- Better Ageing Model) that takes account of disease trends and death rates alongside the effects of increasing life expectancy. They used data from 18,000 men and women from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA...